Officials have agreed on the initial outline of the Defence Review and this will go to Ministers shortly. With Finance Minister Bill English in firm control of the purse-strings, any prospects of major new projects have been ruled out and NZ will continue to spend only around 1% of GDP on defence. The army appears to be the major winner. The force will stabilise at around 5400 personnel with increases in the regular and territorial special forces. Air force elements which might have hoped to re-establish even some limited offensive capability will be disappointed.

However, the Govt is expected to be asked to consider acquiring (either through lease or purchase) up to 5 inshore maritime patrol aircraft to relieve pressure on the Orion fleet and to meet rising demands on fisheries and border patrol work (including police, customs and immigration). The new MPA are likely to be conversions of existing aircraft such as the Dash 8, the ATR42/72 (as flown by Air NZ) or the European CASA 295.

The air force prefers the last as it has a rear ramp suitable for parachute work. The MPA could also double as limited transports for the Defence Force along with Ministers and officials needing short-range flights around the Pacific. Ministers are increasingly frustrated by the unavailability of RNZAF Boeing 757s and Hercules at short notice. The new MPA is also likely to be much cheaper to run.

Major upgrades of the Anzac frigates are unlikely in the short term as the Navy focuses on planning a replacement for the ageing replenishment ship HMNZS Endeavour .As the RNZAF Orions come out of the current major refit (which officials assert will make them extremely sophisticated intelligence gathering aircraft), the fleet is to be renamed as the Air Surveillance Force, reflecting the dual over-land and over-water roles. If approved, the paper reflects what one official says is an acknowledgement the cheapest way NZ can contribute to regional security is by way of the army with an additional role of specific peacekeeping. Defence Minister Wayne Mapp’s recent statement to this effect has been badly received around military messes since it conflicts with the basic army ethos of being trained to fight.

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