There’s more to the Mt Albert by-election than meets the public eye. The June 13 contest is generating a lot more political interest and activity than could be expected from a safe Labour seat. This is because it’s going to deliver verdicts on several fronts. Is the Govt really as popular as the opinion polls show? Will Labour leader Phil Goff prove his credentials, after getting his way with his favoured candidate David Shearer, and raise his profile, which he needs to do? Can Greens co-leader Russel Norman split the centre-left vote? And will voters care whether three of the four main contenders are already MPs and will be back in Parliament whether they win or lose?

Although National is playing the underdog it thinks it’s in with a chance this time. Clark held the seat with a 10,351 majority in last year’s election but Labour beat National in the party vote by 2426 and the Govt is more popular now than it was on election night. There’s only one vote in the by-election but without Clark’s personal following the result is going to be much closer than her huge majority last time. History is heavily against National - Labour has held Mt Albert for 63 years and no Govt has ever taken a seat from the Opposition in a by-election. The Govt is seeking to water down the biggest local issue, saying it will announce its decision on the Waterview motorway before polling day. Trans Tasman predicts a Labour win but with a much reduced majority, maybe around the 2,000 mark.

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