A looming update on NZ’s net greenhouse gas emissions may show a very big cut in NZ’s Kyoto liability. Senior Govt sources say the revised figures stem from recession-related lower industrial output, a drop in livestock numbers and improved measures of forestry carbon sinks. Last year the effect of petrol price rises on consumption shrank the liability from 45.5m tonnes to 21.7m tonnes, or $480m. The weakening NZ dollar lifted the value of the liability to $549m without any change in net emissions. The wild fluctuations in liability estimates may add to pressures for modifying the emissions trading scheme, as legislated for by the previous Govt. The special Select Committee of Parliament reviewing the ETS has yet to start hearing submissions, though Forestry Minister David Carter says the Govt hopes the review will be completed by the end of April.

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