'Free Content' Archives

Party Politics: ACT Looking For A Profile Boost

July 29th, 2010

The ACT party has been virtually invisible of late, with leader Rodney Hide slipping into the background. Hide’s Party has been overshadowed by John Key’s growing closeness with the Maori Party. ACT badly needs a profile boost and its backing for the controversial extension of the 90-day probation period to cover all workers should deliver […]

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Political Leadership: Political Management Still A Concern For National

July 29th, 2010

John Key’s announcement of relatively minor, if right-leaning, changes to labour laws which provoked the most violent political demonstration seen for years in NZ, played straight into the hands of a Govt which fears its mining back down will be seen as another sign of weakness among its right-wing supporters, who can always still turn […]

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Employment Law: Government Buys A Fight With Unions

July 28th, 2010

There isn’t going to be any backdown on this one - the Govt is prepared to take on the unions and John Key is backing himself on employment law changes. Key says it’s his responsibility to help people get jobs, and this goes to the core of his reasons for being in politics. Key feels […]

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Elections: Labour Running Early Candidate Selections

July 22nd, 2010

Labour aims to have a full slate of confirmed election candidates by the end of the year as it moves quickly to get them on the ground in electorates. With National riding high on mid-term poll ratings of 50% plus, and John Key a hugely popular leader, Labour doesn’t have a realistic chance of winning […]

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Trade: Can NZ Double Trade With China In Five Years?

July 22nd, 2010

While the talks in Seoul and Hanoi were important diplomatic impact points, Key’s prime destination was Beijing where his relatively easy access to China’s leaders was clearly evident. Key and Premier Wen Jiabao went into talks to discuss another FTA - the one in force between NZ and China. Key says he presented his goal […]

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NZ Trade: PM Talks Up Trade On Asia Jaunt

July 21st, 2010

John Key has swept through Korea, China and Vietnam with a mix of buoyant optimism, ambition for NZ and some tough talking along the way. Key flew home this week after intense top-level meetings in all three countries focused on trade and building multi-lateral relationships. In Seoul Key met President Lee Myung-bak, talking for 90 […]

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Emissions: Could Methane Emissions Be “Parked” To Satisfy Farmers?

July 15th, 2010

The introduction of the ETS last week appeared relatively painless in political terms, but Govt MPs are still receiving the message it’s highly unpopular in their constituencies. Agriculture Minister David Carter told a seminar at Lincoln NZ would not proceed (with the inclusion of agriculture in 2015) if NZ is the only country taking […]

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Economic Debate - How To Nurse The Recovery

July 15th, 2010

Business confidence is unlikely to be lifted by news of a June-quarter shrinkage of business optimism and its likely consequence of stalling a recovery from weakness in manufacturing, construction, and investment intentions. The NZIER’s latest survey found firms are less optimistic as the economy failed again to deliver on expectations of a strong recovery: business […]

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NZ Politics: Key Govt Buoyant – Now Comes The Hard Part

July 14th, 2010

John Key’s team will go into the mid-term party conference next weekend (July 17, 18) in a positive, even buoyant mood. Under Key the party has shifted towards the centre of the political spectrum, which it now bestrides, squeezing opponents into a relatively narrow segment. It has met its primary goal of regaining the trust […]

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Oil Exploration: Extent Of Oil Search Exposed

July 8th, 2010

Protests against the Govt’s award of an exploration permit to Brazilian oil giant Petrobras in the Raukumara Basin, backed by Ngati Porou’s influential leader Dr Api Mahuika, had all the appearance of an audacious bid to stake out a claim for the fruits of any successful exploration. Energy Minister Gerry Brownlee was quick to stamp […]

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Economic Debate - How Damaging Is Global Rebalancing?

July 8th, 2010

National MP Craig Foss’s patsy question on Tuesday provided Finance Minister Bill English with a pretext to rubbish the Clark Govt’s fiscal policy management. It invited him to tell what reports he had received of recent Budget measures taken internationally and to explain the implications for NZ. English replied Govts around the world are […]

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Economic Growth: English Tests Appetite For Next Economic Step

July 7th, 2010

Julia Gillard’s swift despatch last week of Kevin Rudd added a new dimension to the often brutal brand of politics practised in Canberra. If there were tears shed by Rudd’s colleagues, they weren’t visible. In Wellington relief was palpable. Rudd’s interventions had frustrated NZ in different theatres. He unilaterally pushed taking Japan to the International […]

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NZ Defence: Army, Air Force Likely Winners In Defence Review

July 1st, 2010

Officials have agreed on the initial outline of the Defence Review and this will go to Ministers shortly. With Finance Minister Bill English in firm control of the purse-strings, any prospects of major new projects have been ruled out and NZ will continue to spend only around 1% of GDP on defence. The army appears […]

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Trans Tasman Relations: “Astonishing” Progress Towards Single Economic Market

July 1st, 2010

Trade Minister Tim Groser was claiming “astonishing” progress towards the single economic market between Aust and NZ out of the annual CER Ministerial Forum held in Canberra this week. Groser who doesn’t hold back with a bit of political hyperbole says a recommendation has been agreed for a new investment protocol, one of the most […]

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Political Leadership: Contrasting Fortunes Of Key And Goff

June 30th, 2010

While John Key was happily blowing a vuvuzela in South Africa in support of the All Whites and basking in reflected glory, Opposition leader Phil Goff was wrestling to keep his more discordant MPs in line. The contrast in political standings of the two political leaders could not have been more stark. The PM has […]

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Labour Reshuffle: Labour Reshuffle Goes Some Way, But More Needed

June 24th, 2010

Labour rookie MP Grant Robertson vaults up the party rankings and becomes spokesman for tertiary education in the wake of the demotion of Shane Jones, Chris Carter, and Mita Ririnui for their credit card misdeeds. Maryan Street and Charles Chauvel move into senior roles in Foreign Affairs and Environment respectively, and Nanaia Mahuta takes over […]

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Diplomacy: Leader’s Visits Broaden Ties Binding Us To Aust & China

June 24th, 2010

Two of the most important visits to NZ by foreign leaders since the Key Govt took office are due this month. First, China’s Vice-President Xi Jinping, rated as likely to step into the Presidency in 2013 when Hu Jintao’s term ends, is bringing with him 120 senior Chinese business leaders, and authorities say the mission […]

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NZ Race Relations: Landmark Agreement Resolves Sensitive Foreshore Issue

June 23rd, 2010

The agreement reached this week by Cabinet with the Maori Party and the Iwi Leadership Group on the foreshore & seabed policy is rated one of the most important landmarks, not just in the relationship between the National and Maori Parties, but in the country’s always sensitive race relations. Last week Trans-Tasman saw the issue […]

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State Owned Enterprise: Solid Energy Looks To Be The Right Model

June 17th, 2010

The Govt faces another difficult choice in allocating scarce capital. Should it back businesses which are being overtaken by new technologies (such as NZ Post) or should it back enterprises which are pioneering new technologies? Finance Minister Bill English has said the Govt is working hard to understand the capital demands of its operations and […]

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Green Party - Rebels Without A Real Cause

June 17th, 2010

The Green Party has set itself the target of polling more than 10% at next year’s election, and has chosen 25-year-old Georgina Morrison as its female co-convenor to confirm its shift to a new generation of leadership. The Greens have lifted support in recent polls, because they are picking up those disillusioned with the Key […]

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NZ Government: National Led Coalition Reaching Crunch Point?

June 16th, 2010

The National-led coalition may be reaching a crunch point with its junior partner, the Maori Party, over the issue on which the Maori Party emerged as a political force. John Key says he won’t go ahead with repeal of the 2004 foreshore and seabed legislation, if the Maori Party rejects the concept of placing the […]

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Oil Exploration: Petrobras To Enter NZ Oil Hunt

June 10th, 2010

One of the biggest economic stories of the year didn’t make it on to the front pages of either of NZ’s largest newspapers, but the decision of Brazil’s state-owned energy giant Petrobras to enter the NZ oil search could be a vital step in the transformatory process the Govt has embarked on, seeking to overhaul […]

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Banking Sector: Financial Merger To Create “Heartland” Bank

June 10th, 2010

Three Canterbury-based financial institutions are taking up the challenge of forming a NZ-owned bank to compete vigorously as a full-service banking operation in the credit market. On February 25 Trans-Tasman flagged the potential for a NZ-owned bank which would have wider access to capital, and foresaw the possibility of a Govt-led merger of institutions. The […]

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NZ Politics: NZ Govt Wades Into The Heavy Stuff

June 9th, 2010

The Govt was wading into the heavy stuff this week, an international crisis in the Middle East, renewed controversy over international whaling, initiating a trade negotiation with Russia, and paving the way for Brazil’s state-owned Perobras to join the NZ oil hunt. On the domestic front it was dealing with bushfires over the ETS, the […]

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Tax: Has Tax Reform Ended, Or Is It Just On Hold?

June 3rd, 2010

Does Budget 2010 represent the end point for tax cuts, at least in the short to medium term? PwC Chair John Shewan says he thinks NZ could aim for a 28% top rate within two years and 25% by 2015. John Key says he is comfortable where rates are for the mean time. Shewan’s forecasts […]

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NZ Economy: Good News On The Financial Front- But Also A Warning

May 27th, 2010

The Govt had some good news to savour on the eve of the budget. First there was an indication the dairy payout in 2011 might rise as high as $8kg of milksolids. And the Reserve Bank reported the outlook for the financial system has improved over recent months, reflecting a recovery in the NZ […]

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NZ Foreign Policy: NZ Gets Access To Top Level Intelligence

May 27th, 2010

Senior Ministers have confirmed the Key Govt has returned NZ to the top levels of the US and UK primary intelligence systems. Not for the best part of 30 years has Wellington enjoyed such access to the primary intelligence which guides Washington, London, Ottawa and Canberra. Senior Ministers have confirmed the streams of intelligence flowing […]

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Political Leadership: Key Shows The Steel In His Leadership

May 26th, 2010

John Key has often baffled his opponents, and even commentators, with his style of leadership. Nothing ever seems to faze him. Critics who would like to write him off as a lightweight tried on a dismissive nickname “Smile & Wave.” But if anyone doubted there’s steel at the core, they have only to look at […]

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Budget Special 2010

May 20th, 2010

Building the Recovery
Tax Reform Biggest In 25 Years
“We owe it to hard-working Kiwi families to provide them with the financial security, opportunities and higher take-home incomes which allow them to get ahead here in this country, instead of chasing better opportunities overseas. The budget does those things and sets out a path to […]

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Govt Draws Line In Sand - Gets Broadside From Turia

May 19th, 2010

The Dominion Post’s warning “Key must allay Kiwis’ unease,” reverberated round the Beehive. It reinforced what National’s strategists have already been telling Ministers. Anxiety has been mounting within the party on how far Key is seen to be making concessions to the Maori Party. Even the wider electorate’s capacity to absorb Whanau Ora, the UN […]

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Closing Tax Loopholes Essential Element Of Reform

May 14th, 2010

Another salient issue is how Bill English will deliver on his undertaking to align taxation income more closely with economic income, and on the extent loopholes such as the inability to look through trusts in determining eligibility for Working for Families and other benefits will be addressed. Specialists in the area will also be looking […]

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Budget Will Be A Litmus Test Of Government’s Commitment

May 14th, 2010

Budget 2010 will be a real litmus test of the Govt’s commitment to use the tax system to achieve some of its transformational objectives. While it is clear GST will rise to 15% (probably from October 1) and depreciation on buildings will either be denied or significantly curtailed, again from October 1, the unknown issue […]

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International Turmoils Gives English A Fiscal Break

May 14th, 2010

The international turmoil triggered by Greece’s debt crisis has, in a sense, made Finance Minister Bill English’s task easier. The Govt has already proved its fiscal rectitude, and it won’t be under the kind of scrutiny from ratings agencies which is provoking nervousness in global markets about the sovereign debt of many European countries, even […]

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Economic Debate - When To Lift Interest Rates

May 13th, 2010

The Reserve Bank of Australia again has raised its benchmark interest rate (this time to 4.5%), saying inflation will move into the top half of its average 2%-to-3% target range in the year ahead. The RBA board has been out in front in lifting interest rates in the wake of the global economic recession. NZ’s […]

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NZ Foreign Policy: Key Cops Flak For Gulf Mission Miscue

May 13th, 2010

John Key’s decision to abandon his Gulf mission to return for the funerals of RNZAF personnel killed in the ANZAC Day helicopter tragedy is expected to delay the opening of NZ’s newest offshore post in Abu Dhabi. The Gulf State’s authorities are expected to defer approval in response to his decision. As Trans-Tasman reported last […]

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NZ Defence Policy: NZ’s Afghan Commitment To Wind Down Before Election

May 12th, 2010

NZ’s military commitment in Afghanistan will be wound down well before next year’s election. Cabinet is unlikely to deviate from this decision, despite pressure exerted on John Key in Afghanistan this week to maintain NZ’s military presence for longer. The NZ Herald threw its weight behind NZ continuing beyond current mandated commitments, in order to […]

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Hold Down Inflation, Or Choke Recovery?

May 10th, 2010

NZ’s economic recovery remains fragile, despite the commodity export boom (the ANZ says its NZD Commodity Price Index hit a new record high in April, with ten of the 13 commodities monitored rising during the month). As shown in the Crown’s financial accounts, corporate tax revenue is well below forecast, reflecting in particular how the […]

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Govt To Turn Around State Sector Spending

May 10th, 2010

The Budget is all but locked down, and Finance Minister Bill English concedes he is “happy” with the way major departments have buckled down to living within the cap of $1.1bn of new spending. It had been a big challenge to turn around the state sector spending “super-tanker,” but by re-prioritising programmes, and knocking some […]

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English’s Budget To Tilt Economic Dynamics

May 10th, 2010

In the budget next month Bill English may have to exercise the skill of a Jeremy Clarkson in driving the economy, putting his foot on the accelerator to speed up economic re-balancing, stamping on the brake in holding Govt spending. He’s got to avoid putting it into a tailspin and sliding into the ditch. The […]

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Early Signs Economy Is Shifting Its Focus

May 10th, 2010

In the GDP figures for December, the Govt sees some early signs of the shift in the NZ economy it wants. A shift it believes can be accelerated by tax changes in the budget. Housing and consumption have not taken off as expected before Christmas, Govt administration has shrunk for the first time since 1999, […]

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Budget To Blow Away Economic Uncertainty

May 10th, 2010

AXA chief economist Bevan Graham says “we could look back on this year as the dawning of new age of prosperity, if the risks can be as successfully managed as the financial crisis was.” Govt strategists in the Beehive are not quite as bullish, but they reckon the Budget will reduce a lot of the […]

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Tax Changes Fiscally Neutral - But Will It Damage Growth?

May 10th, 2010

The Govt is insisting its tax package will be fiscally “neutral,” and at the same time, taxpayers will be better off, even after GST is lifted to 15%. A Sunday Star-Times report at the weekend speculated the new tax levels could be set at 10c, 19c and 33c, without any movement in the thresholds. This […]

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Economic Debate - What’s Best For Drinkers?

May 6th, 2010

The Govt quickly ruled out the likelihood of raising liquor excises, a key Law Commission proposal for reducing the harm from alcohol. It thus spurned a two-fold benefit. First, increasing the revenue collected from our favourite tipples would reduce the sum needed to be collected from income taxes. Anybody who drinks would pay more excise […]

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NZ Economy: Key Govt Strides Towards Economic Transformation

May 6th, 2010

Without much fanfare, some significant progress is being chalked up in re-balancing the economy, turning it from debt-fuelled consumption excess to export-led expansion, and out of cyclical recession to sustainable growth. Alongside the headline success of the resurgent dairy boom and the forestry sector reaping the rewards of insatiable demand for logs from China, manufacturers […]

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NZ Economy: Returns From Dairy, Log Exports Booming

May 5th, 2010

In boosting the milk payout to its second highest level on record, Fonterra told farmers to expect much the same again next year. In-hand income for farmers should reach or top $8bn, up around $1.6bn on last season. Some of this will be offset by higher costs for farmers in drought-afflicted regions. It’s predicted the […]

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NZ Political Party: Cold Shower For Labour In Latest Poll

April 29th, 2010

Labour leader Phil Goff grudgingly admitted this week John Key is a “slick operator.” In damning his opponent with faint praise Goff was seeking to explain Key’s popularity, as distinct from his own lack of it. The latest TVNZ-Colmar Brunton poll rated Key at 48% against Goff’s 8%, suggesting even some Labour supporters prefer Key […]

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NZ Politics: Strategy To Hug Maori Party In Long-Term Embrace

April 29th, 2010

National is displaying a brutally realistic interpretation of realpolitik under MMP in seeking to consolidate the support of the Maori Party. By contrast ACT appears to be increasingly marginalised within the coalition (John Key dismissively waved away ACT’s call for a statutory cap to be put on Govt expenditure in the Budget). The prevailing strategy […]

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NZ Politics: Coalition Strained As key Plays With Fire

April 28th, 2010

Rodney Hide savaged National this week for breaching the spirit of the “no surprises” element of its coalition agreement with ACT. He attacked the “covert” action of the Govt in affirming its support for the UN’s Declaration on the Rights of Indigenous Peoples. ACT was “shocked” and “appalled” to find itself a supporting a Govt […]

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NZ Politics: Coalition Strained As key Plays With Fire

April 28th, 2010

Rodney Hide savaged National this week for breaching the spirit of the “no surprises” element of its coalition agreement with ACT. He attacked the “covert” action of the Govt in affirming its support for the UN’s Declaration on the Rights of Indigenous Peoples. ACT was “shocked” and “appalled” to find itself a supporting a Govt […]

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NZ Budget: English’s Budget To Tilt Economic Dynamics

April 22nd, 2010

In the budget next month Bill English may have to exercise the skill of a Jeremy Clarkson in driving the economy, putting his foot on the accelerator to speed up economic re-balancing, stamping on the brake in holding Govt spending. He’s got to avoid putting it into a tailspin and sliding into the ditch. The […]

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NZ Foreign Relations: Key Builds A Profile On The International Stage

April 22nd, 2010

The Govt will be looking to confirm John Key’s new-found status on the international stage when he gets a White House invitation for a one-on-one with President Obama. This will fill out the dimension any NZ leader needs as he seeks a second term. Key’s popularity at home continues to surprise commentators, but playing an […]

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Foreign Relations: NZ’s PM Rides Anti-Nuclear Wave Into Washington

April 22nd, 2010

NZ’s stocks with the Obama administration are on a new level. The US president told John Key NZ had “well and truly earned” a place at the table of the nuclear security summit in Washington. The forum is Obama’s attempt to forge a global consensus about what is unarguably the most pressing issue of the […]

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Economic Debate - Is Overseas Investment The Best Remedy?

April 15th, 2010

December quarter GDP (+0.8%) was the third consecutive quarter of growth. Finance Minister Bill English says this suggests the recession, which began in early 2008, bottomed out in the first half of 2009, and since then the economy has grown again at a moderate rate. This is consistent with a range of other indicators, and […]

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NZ Economy: Early Signs Economy Is Shifting Its Focus

April 15th, 2010

In the GDP figures for December, the Govt sees some early signs of the shift in the NZ economy it wants. A shift it believes can be accelerated by tax changes in the budget. Housing and consumption have not taken off as expected before Christmas, Govt administration has shrunk for the first time since 1999, […]

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NZ Foreign Policy: Washington Visit Puts Key In Big League

April 14th, 2010

John Key’s Govt is marching into the Easter break confident it is back on top of the political agenda. The budget is practically locked down, planned tax changes got the big tick from visiting IMF scrutineers, and where in 2008 it looked as if it would be ten years before the Govt’s accounts moved from […]

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Economic Debate - Have We Got It Right On Mines?

March 31st, 2010

Double standards are at work in Govt policy on resource development. When three companies proposed farming 18,000 cows in the Mackenzie Basin using European “cubicle farming” techniques, Environment Minister Nick Smith called in their applications for effluent consents because of national concerns such as the effect on NZ’s clean green image. The applications were withdrawn […]

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NZ Welfare Policy: Welfare Changes Play Well In National’s Heartlands

March 31st, 2010

Re-asserting its agenda to pick up momentum again, the Govt announced wide-ranging welfare changes, as well as its mining stocktake. Both issues played well in National’s traditional heartlands, which have become concerned the Key Govt has become so enamoured of its poll ratings it won’t risk measures arousing any sort of political backlash. The tougher […]

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NZ Resources: Brownlee Signals NZ Inc Is Open For Business

March 31st, 2010

The dawn of a new age of prosperity or an ecological disaster? The country appeared split down the middle as Energy and Resources Minister Gerry Brownlee unveiled the Govt’s policy on mining, through his so-called “stocktake.” Conservation lobby groups leapt to man the barricades against the goths and vandals. News media were flooded with […]

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Economic Debate - How Much Fiscal Consolidation Is Needed?

March 25th, 2010

Addressing a business audience late in January, RBNZ Governor Alan Bollard championed the country’s inflation-targeting monetary policy. He said it had proven flexible, durable and successful. It had been tested through a long period of growth, as well as droughts, migration shocks, terms of trade changes, an Asian crisis, a dot-com boom and bust, and, […]

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NZ State Sector: Turnaround In Public Sector Performance Is The Key

March 25th, 2010

What the Key coalition is seeking to deliver out of the public sector is different from what any previous administration has done. Faced with fiscal stringency previous Govts imposed cuts, or restructuring. The Key Govt is not focused on cash savings, but rather on transforming what one Minister described as “an often crap service delivered […]

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NZ Politics: Ministers Scramble To Tidy Up – Opposition Exploits Flaws

March 24th, 2010

While last week we reported the Govt was finally shedding its “do nothing” image, its attempts to gain momentum have foundered somewhat. Ministers were scrambling this week to tidy up assorted backfiring initiatives: Steven Joyce his “review” of the Supergold card over-spending, Rodney Hide the “undemocratic” aspects of the “super-city” merger in Auckland, such as […]

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Economic Debate - How To Measure Public Service Productivity

March 18th, 2010

The headline on a statement from Education Minister Anne Tolley qualifies for a place on a Tui billboard. Her Ministry is being spruced up “to be more efficient, less bureaucratic.” Of course it will. But while every Ministry has been doing exactly the same thing since the public service was invented, this time there is […]

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NZ Politics: Opposition Gaining Traction, But Key’s Popularity Not Hurt

March 18th, 2010

The Labour Opposition sees itself getting real traction from its Axe-The-Tax campaign. MPs on the bus tour report they are getting a strong response. They think the Key Govt is miscalculating the depth of public concern. For the first time since the election defeat, they feel they are re-connecting with their core support. The Govt’s […]

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Key Govt Sheds Its “Do Nothing” Image

March 17th, 2010

Not so long ago the Govt was being accused of being a “do-nothing” outfit (not only by its critics but even by one of its allies). But the criticism has faded, as the Govt fleshes out its programmes. John Key’s administration is pursuing a methodical approach to securing its primary goals: sector-by-sector analysis to identify […]

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NZ Rail Sector: Parts Of The Rail Network May Be Axed

March 11th, 2010

The National Infrastructure Plan unveiled this week makes it plain much of KiwiRail’s network hangs in the balance. A huge investment including $250m for a new Inter-island ferry is needed, but the Govt won’t commit funds until freight forwarders and bulk users back a commercial model, rather than rely on continuing Govt subsidies for a […]

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NZ Economy: Where Will Money For Superannuation Rise Come From?

March 11th, 2010

John Key sought to de-fang the political onslaught of Grey Power lobbyists against the Govt’s planned GST increase by promising superannuitants a “double whammy” increase: a rise in the actual super rate plus tax cuts. These include the tax cut to their pension payments, and to any other income they receive from interest, dividends or […]

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NZ Politics: Heatley’s Demise – No Substitute For Political Experience

March 10th, 2010

When National campaigned in 2008 there was the usual emphasis on law and order issues. Almost all political parties compete to present themselves as tougher than each other on crime. Usually this just feeds into more prisons, longer prison sentences, along with promises - rarely fulfilled - of more police on the beat. This sort […]

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Economic Debate - Which Inflation Target Is Best?

March 4th, 2010

The boffins at BERL were buoyant, when senior IMF researchers published their assessment of world macroeconomic policy over the past 20 years and found it wanting. An obsession with achieving low inflation using policy interest rates - the researchers reckoned - may well have caused the crisis and certainly has made overcoming it more […]

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NZ Public Sector: Crucial Phase In Lifting Public Sector Performance

March 4th, 2010

A crucial phase in the process to lift public sector performance has been reached this week. As part of the budget process, state departments and agencies are reporting back to Ministers on how they are dealing with their baseline expenditures to deliver the “significant and enduring changes to the way they operate,” demanded by the […]

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NZ Politics: NZ A Laboratory For Policy Development Again

March 3rd, 2010

Polling for the television channels appears to confirm the Govt will see its support base shrink rapidly when it increases GST in the May budget. The TVNZ Colmar Brunton poll, for example, recorded 69% of respondents didn’t think raising GST is a “good idea” and 63% didn’t believe they would be better off after the […]

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Layoffs Yet Another Embarrassment On Defence Project

February 25th, 2010

Air NZ forced the Govt into an embarrassing admission this week over the $234m project to update the RNZAF’s fleet of 45-year-old Hercules transport aircraft. The programme is stalled, forcing Air NZ to cut 100 jobs at Blenheim-based Safe Air. The disclosure is the latest chapter in a saga of botched defence projects running from […]

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NZ Government: Steven Joyce’s Influence Keeps Getting Bigger

February 25th, 2010

Steven Joyce might rank at 14th in the Cabinet room, but he’s rapidly assuming a critical role in trouble-shooting in the Beehive, rather in the manner of Michael Cullen in the last Cabinet. In Transport, he has got several contentious projects funded and under way. Trans-Tasman has noted how he has come to be regarded […]

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NZ Politics: Buoyant John Key, And His Govt, Regain Political Momentum

February 24th, 2010

The Key Govt believes it has regained the momentum its critics claim it was losing. The PM himself is remarkably buoyant, despite having to dance on a pinhead over earlier declarations he would not raise GST. And he also confessed to being “sloppy” in disposing of his shares in an Aust uranium exploration company. These […]

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NZ Politics: Defining The Difference Between National And Labour

February 18th, 2010

Opposition Leader Phil Goff saw the Key speech as a “step-back” and promised a stern fight against any increase in GST. Hyped up as Big Tuesday, he says it turned out to be “Tiptoe Tuesday.” In light of the relatively tepid welcome the Prime Ministerial statement received, Labour could feel it has regained the political […]

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NZ Budget: Approach To Finding New Revenue Sources Limited

February 18th, 2010

The PM’s statement to Parliament said only the Govt would “carefully consider” raising GST. It was a signal it has to get its coalition partners on side, particularly the Maori Party, which says it will fight an increase if it disadvantages low-income groups. But it’s clear Cabinet is set on lifting GST to 15% and […]

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NZ Tax System: Tax Cuts Traded For GST Rise – Will It Stimulate Growth

February 17th, 2010

A new tax structure, with tax cuts worth $4bn, an increase of GST to 15%, and compensatory adjustments to benefits, unlocking NZ’s mineral wealth, new priorities in science and innovation, changes to how property is taxed; welfare benefit reform with a focus on helping people back to work; Whanau Ora to be developed as a […]

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NZ Foreign Policy: Ministers Shrug Off Afghan Exit Strategy Idea

February 11th, 2010

Defence Minister Wayne Mapp flew off to Istanbul this week for an ISAF Defence Ministers’ conference. This follows Foreign Minister Murray McCully going to London last week for an ISAF Foreign Ministers’ conference. Some analysts see this intense activity as evidence the Govt’s intervention in Afghanistan worries the NZ public and the Govt is looking […]

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NZ Education System: Standards - Essential Education Tool, Or “Tolley’s Folly”?

February 11th, 2010

In the first political scrap of the year, Labour’s Phil Goff called on the PM to sack Education Minister Anne Tolley over what he called the “shambles” in introducing national standards for literacy and numeracy in schools. “Tolley’s folly” is how Labour (as well as the teachers’ union) sees the concept of national standards. National […]

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NZ Economy: Big Challenges In Fixing A Damaged Economy

February 10th, 2010

At Tuesday’s all-day session on working on this year’s political programme, National’s Caucus enthusiastically backed the overhaul of the tax structure the PM will outline in his opening statement to Parliament next week. John Key says his first major speech of the year will contain “a reasonably detailed shopping list of the economic agenda for […]

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Economic Debate - Psychology Or Market Forces?

February 4th, 2010

Better economic advice to the Govt will be one measure of the shake-up of Treasury’s leadership team. This wasn’t an exercise in staff-shedding. It was an exercise in reasserting the Treasury’s leadership role in the state sector. It also gives expression to the Govt’s yearning for public-sector advisers who will earn their keep not by […]

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NZ Tax Reform: Dynamic Transformation Depends ON Tax Reform

February 3rd, 2010

How macho will the Govt be is the question intriguing political circles in Wellington, as John Key’s administration lays the foundation for structural changes it says are essential in closing the income gap with Aust. Some of those in Cabinet, (even those who concede this year’s budget will be a defining document for the Key-led […]

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NZ Credit: Firms Hurting As Banks Tighten Credit

January 28th, 2010

NZ’s economic recovery is still very patchy: some sectors are quite confident, in others companies are stretched. Many are running into credit difficulties as the banking sector tightens up. The high degree of uncertainty is leaving companies unwilling to invest or hire. Construction and manufacturing have yet to turn around from the downward trend. Fishing, […]

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NZ Defence Policy: Public Get Right To Know About SAS Activities

January 28th, 2010

Changing his tune about media publicity on SAS operations, the PM this week spelt out a new policy on informing the public about action involving NZ’s elite troops, saying “they are not there to eat their lunch in Afghanistan.” Key says the new approach has been under discussion for some time. The change in policy […]

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Govt Planning: Defining Moment Looms For Govt, And John Key

January 27th, 2010

As it moves into what informed commentators see as a make-or break year, the Govt faces big challenges. Will John Key sail along as Mr Nice Guy, or will he show the steel of a real leader? The Govt did well in 2009 to shelter NZ from the worst effects of the global financial crisis. […]

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NZ Trade Policy: Maximising Opportunities For NZ Inc Abroad

January 21st, 2010

Cabinet’s External Relations and Defence Committee had its first look this week at the review of NZ’s offshore posts ordered by Murray McCully. Decisions arising from the review are expected from Cabinet in the New Year. In the meantime McCully expects significant consultations involving other departments besides the Ministry of Foreign Affairs and Trade on […]

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NZ Foreign Policy: McCully Lobbies ForAn EU Partnership

January 21st, 2010

Foreign Minister Murray McCully is heading back to Scandinavia, and Russia. Sweden currently holds the EU Presidency, and McCully is pursuing the process agreed by President Barroso and John Key earlier this year to take discussions of an EU/NZ comprehensive partnership agreement to the next stage. For reasons of geography NZ is both part […]

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NZ Economy: Finding Incentives To Galvanise Productive Sector

January 21st, 2010

The beauty of the Tax Working Group’s proposals for reform is they cut the ground under the feet of those who claim the Govt would be taking from the poor to give to the rich. In closing loopholes which allow property investors to escape tax, and putting forward a land tax (with exemptions for farmland), […]

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NZ-Australian Relations: Canberra Sends A Clear Signal on Single Market Ambitions

December 10th, 2009

One of the clearest signals out of Canberra so far the Rudd Govt wants to accelerate work on the trans-Tasman single economic market came last week when Aust awarded its highest honour, the Order of Australia, to Hugh Templeton, the NZ Trade Minister who negotiated the Closer Economic Relations pact with Australia’s Doug Anthony. […]

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NZ Economic Growth: Ministers & Officials Working On “Economic Growth Agenda”

December 10th, 2009

Ministers and officials are beavering away on what Wellington insiders call the “EGA” (the Govt’s Economic Growth Agenda). Sectors identified are tax, public sector performance, energy (petroleum and electricity) and minerals, business assistance for innovation, research and technology (including broadband), and irrigation. The Govt is now holding much of the advice required to turn the […]

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Roll Call 2009

December 7th, 2009

Trans Tasman Roll Call for 2009, our yearly ranking of the country’s MPs.
Download as a PDF
Trans Tasman’s 2009 Roll Call has elevated Speaker of the House, Lockwood Smith to top of its rankings this year.
Each year Trans Tasman’s Editors rank all MPs on the basis of their performance in Caucus, Cabinet, Committee, the House […]

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NZ Emissions Strategy: Govt Takes A Hammering ON ETS Deal

November 27th, 2009

The Govt’s stellar poll ratings have taken a dip. In the latest Roy Morgan poll it is down from 55% to 51%, as it takes a hit over its Emissions Trading Scheme and wheeling and dealing over it with Maori interests. Before this Rodney Hide’s perks imbroglio, and Hone Harawira’s attempt at political self-immolation damaged […]

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NZ Economy: Economic Debate - Is The ETS Really The Best Alternative?

November 26th, 2009

It’s of academic interest only now, in a week when the Govt has rushed to ram an extensively modified, highly contentious and economically bothersome version of the emissions trading scheme into law. But a paper from the Centre for Independent Studies earlier this year, Emissions Tax: The Least Worst Option, said an emissions trading system […]

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NZ Foreign Relations: Next Task - Mending Relations With The EU

November 26th, 2009

After attending meetings with other Commonwealth Foreign Ministers in Trinidad Murray McCully, has scheduled an extensive tour of European capitals in an effort to breath fresh life into the effort to reach a comprehensive partnership arrangement with the EU. The partnership concept has been on the table for some time, but had been left in […]

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NZ Trade Relations: TPP Trade Gains For NZ Could Be “Huge”

November 19th, 2009

Evidence relations with the US are deepening in a way which could not have been foreseen just months ago can be detected in different areas. Intelligence exchanges have been tightened, the security relationship is taking a different shape, and last week President Obama confirmed the US, after a protracted review, will join negotiations for the […]

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NZ Foreign Policy: NZ Swings Back Into Washington Favour

November 19th, 2009

NZ, which for so long was in Washington’s dog-box, is now top of the pops with the Obama administration. Ironically it’s because of NZ’s anti-nuclear policy. The irony is not lost on senior members of the National Party which opposed so strenuously the then Labour Govt’s nuclear policy declaration more than 20 years ago leading […]

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NZ Economic Planning: Govt Staunch On Economy, Resists Pressure To Be Radical

November 6th, 2009

With Sir Roger Douglas about to unveil his alternative budget, and business lobbyists demanding action on the Govt’s transformatory policies, fresh pressure is mounting on the Govt to start showing its hand on measures it has pledged will lift NZ’s rate of growth. Sir Roger says if he were Finance Minister he would immediately make […]

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NZ Economic Focus: What To Do About Future Spending

November 5th, 2009

Baby-boomers have much to fret about, despite signs of an economic improvement. Their prospects of enjoying the same Super deal as today’s over-65s have been badly dented by the Treasury’s latest statement on the Govt’s long-term fiscal position, which peers 40 years into the future and warns we must hoist taxes or debt to keep […]

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NZ Diplomatic Strategy: NZ Diplomacy Gets A New Focus

November 5th, 2009

After an intensive round of diplomacy in Asia, John Key and Foreign Minister Murray McCully are convinced NZ’s diplomacy should be re-engineered, with more effort going into the region, and some downsizing elsewhere. Key says NZ has greater “relevance” in Asia. “The growth in our markets and our opportunities are in Asia. Are we really […]

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NZ Economic Planning: NZ Pulling Out Of Its Economic Dive, But Where’s The Kicker?

October 30th, 2009

The NZ economy is regaining momentum, but only slowly, and there are still fears it could go bad again, very quickly. Indicators point to stronger growth in the second half of the year than forecast in the budget or by the Reserve Bank as recently as last month. Net migration has exceeded even optimistic forecasts […]

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NZ Government Business: Centres Of Expertise To Negotiate Govt Contracts

October 29th, 2009

Reforms to Govt procurement, aimed at achieving significant cost savings, will set up specialist teams in new Centres of Expertise to negotiate all-of-Govt contracts. The first Centres of Expertise are to be in the Dept of Internal Affairs and the Ministry of Economic Development, the former to focus on all-of-Govt contracts for IT equipment, and […]

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Economic Debate - Can We Ever Control The Dollar?

October 29th, 2009

Rejecting Federated Farmers’ calls for further public spending cuts to rein in the rising NZ dollar, Finance Minister Bill English said a considered approach must be taken to spending decisions. Services such as Working for Families and interest-free loans for students need to remain in place during the recession and state agencies are already subject […]

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NZ Economic Planning: So Does John Key Have A Plan?

October 22nd, 2009

So does John Key have A Plan? This is the question which business leaders have been asking. Or is the Govt just coasting, riding a wave of popularity all the taller because voters became so disillusioned with the previous regime? Ministers insist the Govt is working to a carefully designed strategy: first, the priority is […]

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NZ Political Management: Govt Must Tighten Management, Tackle Big Issues

October 22nd, 2009

Bidding for free-to-air rights for televising the Rugby World Cup was a Govt “schemozzle,” the pundits said; the failure to win coalition support for ACC changes was a “shambles,” Labour said; and according to Select Committee submissions, changes to the ETS have left farming and Maori lobbies fuming. It hasn’t looked tidy, and some insiders […]

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NZ Political Management: Danger Signs As Govt Juggles Crucial Issues

October 16th, 2009

The Govt started the week working hard on its economic programme, with a full Cabinet session at Premier House on Monday plotting the forward strategy. But the World Cup broadcast rights issue, the poor Crown accounts for the year and the ACC blow-out, exposed potentially more dangerous waters the Govt has to navigate first.
The […]

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NZ National Finances: NZ Can Climb Debt Mountain, But At High Cost

October 15th, 2009

Retail sales rose more strongly than expected in August. This could point to a more vigorous recovery than previously suspected.
But the Govt is taking the latest reading cautiously. It sees the pick-up at retail level as partly due to stimulus from April’s income tax cuts. On the other side of the ledger the high dollar, […]

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NZ Political Strategy: Danger Signs As Govt Juggles Crucial Issues

October 15th, 2009

The Govt started the week working hard on its economic programme, with a full Cabinet session at Premier House on Monday plotting the forward strategy. But the World Cup broadcast rights issue, the poor Crown accounts for the year and the ACC blow-out, exposed potentially more dangerous waters the Govt has to navigate first.
The […]

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Special Cabinet Meeting: Govt To Shape NZ Inc’s Growth Strategy

October 9th, 2009

As the economy reaches a turning point, the pending Cabinet review of NZ Inc assumes fresh importance. NZ has been in recession since the end of 2007, long before the global financial crisis erupted. Now when the emergency phase has passed, the Govt must look to rebuild the economy, and unleash the drivers of growth. […]

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NZ-US Relations: Hard Sledding In Washington, But Hillary Is Coming

October 8th, 2009

Despite increasing goodwill being shown in Washington to NZ at the personal level, NZ faces an increasingly uphill task to persuade the US administration to begin an FTA negotiation or unlock the stalled Doha Round at the WTO. There has also been no progress made on the Trans Pacific Economic Partnership (TPP) because of the […]

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NZ Economic Planning: Govt Debates Steps Towards “Catching-Up” With Australia

October 8th, 2009

In a preliminary Cabinet debate to its major NZ Inc review, and the transformatory process which the Govt has said it will implement to lift NZ’s productivity, the PM told Ministers NZ will focus on the 3 “cultures” (agriculture, horticulture and aquaculture), high technology and natural resources. Among the initiatives which may prove winners for […]

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NZ Monetary Policy: Changes Needed In Monetary Policy Direction

October 8th, 2009

In raising its key interest rate to 3.25%, the Reserve Bank of Australia is the first country to reverse the cycle of cuts triggered by the global financial crisis. As it shifts away from the “emergency” phase of using monetary policy as an economic stimulus, it is signalling its intention to tighten at a modest […]

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NZ International Relations: Tough Lobbying Campaign Likely To Get Seat At UN Top Table

October 1st, 2009

NZ’s re-commitment to multilateralism has been underlined not only through John Key’s impressive performance at the UN but by the decision to throw its hat in the ring for a seat on the UN Security Council in 2014. It will be a tough lobbying campaign, and the Govt will probably call on eminent persons like […]

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NZ Foreign Policy: Will Key Get The Call For A White House Visit?

October 1st, 2009

Have John Key’s brief contacts with Barack Obama been sufficient to secure an invitation to the White House next year? Observers in New York and Washington believe despite the absence of a formal bilateral meeting (Gordon Brown didn’t get a one-on-one in New York, leading to speculation in the UK press he had been snubbed […]

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NZ Economic Direction: Critical Decisions Loom On Govt’s Forward Strategy

October 1st, 2009

Critical decisions on the Govt’s forward strategy are expected to be shaped at a Cabinet meeting the PM has set down for this specific purpose later this month. Since coming to power the Govt has concentrated on fighting the recession and preserving jobs. Now the focus is shifting to the major problem of how it […]

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A Road Map For Transforming NZ Inc.

October 1st, 2009

Download the White Paper
The Trans Tasman Editors have released a White Paper on New Zealand’s long-term economic future, entitled A Road Map For Transforming NZ Inc.
After ending up in an economic cul de sac after 9 years of Labour-led Government, NZ has to dig itself out of stagnation.
John Key’s Government says it has a […]

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What Is Motivating Bill English?

September 25th, 2009

Bill English celebrated a week of the best economic news for a year by telling public servants there will be no belt loosening.This looks like taking the standard downbeat Finance Minister approach a little too far, (30 years of impact?) but there is more to it.
English is genuinely concerned about the long-term prospects for the […]

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NZ Economic Forecasts: Does The Good News On The Economy Outweigh The Bad?

September 24th, 2009

First, the good news: GDP inched up against expectations it would shrink in the June quarter, the external deficit shrank faster than expected, and Fonterra has raised its payout more than expected. Other positive numbers include net migration reaching 15,600, up from 4,900 the year before, and unemployment rising more slowly than forecast. Where the […]

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NZ-United Nations Ambitions: Afghanistan, Nuclear Proliferation High On The PM’s Agenda

September 24th, 2009

Before he left for New York this week, the PM disclosed the 71-strong SAS detachment the Govt said would be deployed to Afghanistan had arrived there. This commitment has become even more controversial because of the rapidly deteriorating situation in Afghanistan particularly as US General Stanley McChrystal is warning the campaign will fail unless he […]

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NZ-US Relations: Key Wins Air-Time In A Crowded New York Calendar

September 24th, 2009

As world leaders jostled for a headline in New York, John Key played a shrewd hand to win a bit of air-time in a crowded calendar, focusing on the globally sensitive issues of Afghanistan, climate change and nuclear proliferation. While by the time she left office Helen Clark had gained an impressive reputation for her […]

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Mapp Damps Down Defence Expectations

September 17th, 2009

Those diehard National Party supporters who were looking for the Govt’s Defence white paper, due for drafting early next year, to re-assert and expand the war-fighting capabilities of the Defence Force, may be due for disappointment, if the first assessments are carried through. Defence Minister Wayne Mapp says the basic test for a Defence Force […]

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Broadband Could Be The “Silver Bullet” For NZ’s Economy

September 17th, 2009

Communications Minister Steven Joyce has knocked back Telecom on its alternative plan for national broadband coverage, and says he is committed to partnering with the private sector to accelerate the roll-out of ultra-fast broadband with its $1.5bn investment initiative. Telecom’s proposal covered fewer homes and businesses, only provided ducts and not the fibre itself. Joyce […]

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Labour Left Hanging As Govt Goes With Maori Party On ETS

September 17th, 2009

The Key Govt made significant progress this week on two of the most politically controversial programmes it is implementing: the emissions trading scheme, and the Auckland super-city project. In delivering a credible scheme for reducing NZ’s carbon emissions, the PM and his Climate Change Minister Nick Smith sealed a deal with the Maori Party, much […]

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Key Deflates Media Excitement About Treasury Notebook

September 10th, 2009

Excitement in the media about the Govt undertaking a review of NZ’s intelligence services scaled considerable heights this week. A Treasury official dropped a notebook in the street near Parliament, which contained some details about the review being carried out by former MFAT chief Simon Murdoch. The notebook was retrieved by a Radio NZ political […]

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Economic Debate - Where Now For Fonterra?

September 10th, 2009

None of the players in the unedifying debate over whether Fonterra should pursue a partial NZX listing have emerged with their reputations enhanced. The farmer-shareholder repudiation of the proposal, which was the cornerstone of the Fonterra board’s plan to expand the company’s capital-raising capability, is also a classic example of how flawed the co-operative model […]

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Govt Still Tops In Popularity, Labour Still Delusional

September 10th, 2009

The Govt is still riding high in the popularity stakes, with the Roy Morgan poll recording National up 3 points to 56.5%, and Labour down 3 to 29%. It underlines public confidence in John Key isn’t affected by the extremism in the debate surrounding the anti-smacking referendum. Frustratingly for the Opposition parties, the visceral anger […]

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Brownlee Whacked For Suggesting Conservation Land Mines

September 8th, 2009

In setting itself the goal of lifting NZ’s living standards up to the level of Aust’s, the Key Govt has to come up with big ideas on how to do it. Ministers are reported to be beavering away in the Beehive on these “big ideas.” It’s clear the Key Govt will also have to break […]

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Oil Exports Now NZ’s Fourth Economic Pillar

September 3rd, 2009

Oil production is becoming a fourth pillar of the NZ economy, behind dairy, meat and tourism. Latest figures show in 2008 oil export earnings ranked third behind dairy and meat exports in merchandise trade. Crude oil and condensate production rose 57% to 2.5m tonnes in the year to December 2008 from 1.6m tonnes in 2007. […]

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Brownlee Whacked For Suggesting Conservation Land Mines

September 3rd, 2009

In setting itself the goal of lifting NZ’s living standards up to the level of Aust’s, the Key Govt has to come up with big ideas on how to do it. Ministers are reported to be beavering away in the Beehive on these “big ideas.” It’s clear the Key Govt will also have to break […]

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NZ Economy Starts Growing Again, But Will It Last?

September 3rd, 2009

Reserve Bank Governor Alan Bollard believes the recovery is beginning. NZ has come through the global financial crisis “reasonably well.” The crisis exposed vulnerabilities, which could have had “harsher consequences.” The National Bank Business Outlook has business confidence levels reaching up to the best in a decade, and its chief economist Cameron Bagrie says there […]

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Key, Rudd Take Single Economic Market To New Level…

September 1st, 2009

John Key’s almost insouciant style of political leadership masks an iron determination to “get things done.” In Aust last week, he achieved more in creating an efficient trans-Tasman trade and economic relationship than any of his predecessors did in the last 25 years. After major initiatives to free up the movement of people and capital […]

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Why A Big Team Is Going To UN General Assembly

August 27th, 2009

NZ will mount its heaviest political presence in years at the opening of the UN General Assembly next month. John Key will lead the delegation and give NZ’s address. Foreign Minister Murray McCully will be there for a meeting of Commonwealth Foreign Ministers as well as attending a CMAG meeting on Fiji, while Tim Groser […]

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Orion Upgrade Extends Defence Capability

August 27th, 2009

The first of the RNZAF’s newly upgraded P-3K2 Orion aircraft has made its initial test flight at contractor L-3 Integrated Systems’ facility in Greenville, Texas. Defence Minister Wayne Mapp says the flight is an important milestone in a complex project. The refurbished Orion is now among NZ’s most advanced defence capabilities. Mapp confirms for the […]

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Economic Debate - Can We Ignore Innovation?

August 27th, 2009

Financial markets and media organisations around the world, including here at home, were quick this week to seize on Fed chairman Ben Bernanke’s prognosis for a US-led recovery. At a Fed conference in Wyoming, Bernanke was bullish about the effect US Govt policy actions in recent months have had in helping stabilise a number […]

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Who Won In Auckland Super City Maori Seat Row?

August 27th, 2009

The row over Maori seats on Auckland’s super-city council, as some media saw it, signalled the imminent break-up of the National-led coalition. Opposition leader Phil Goff says Tau Henare’s dismissal of ACT leader Rodney Hide as a “buffoon” indicated tensions within National. But anyone who imagined Cabinet would depart from its April decision there would […]

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Economic Debate - Is Joining The Euro The Answer?

August 20th, 2009

Rakon chairman Bryan Mogridge’s complaint last Friday about the volatility of the NZ dollar was not, on balance, particularly helpful to the wider currency debate. It was still a timely reminder to policy-makers countering the vagaries of currency fluctuation will not happen by developing back-of-the-envelope proposals. Mogridge accurately noted because the USD (in which many […]

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Can The Govt Get All Climate Change Objectives In Line?

August 20th, 2009

The Govt is struggling to get all its climate change objectives into a row. The forestry sector could ease pressures on NZ’s greenhouse gas liabilities if it gets the right incentives but is in an uproar over proposals to put a cap on the value of carbon credits and to limit trading to the domestic […]

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Mapp Canvasses Future Defence Options

August 20th, 2009

The Cabinet strategy Committee this week reviewed the first draft of the proposed defence white paper, in time for Defence Minister Wayne Mapp to give a broad outline of its thinking to a joint meeting of Cabinet Ministers to be held, appropriately, at the Naval Heritage Centre on Garden Island in Sydney on Friday. The […]

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Economic Debate - How To Encourage R&D

August 13th, 2009

The Aust Govt is forging ahead with plans for a R&D tax credit while its NZ counterpart dithers over how to progress a similar agenda here. Aust is proposing the introduction of a 45% refundable tax credit for firms turning over less than $20m a year, effective from the 2010-2011 tax year. It is equivalent […]

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Worries For Govt Despite Better “Feel-Good Factor”

August 13th, 2009

Economists say NZ is moving towards recovery and a better “feel-good factor” has developed. But the Govt is worried by unemployment rising faster than expected. It may continue rising well into next year. The Govt sees the economy as lopsided, with almost no net jobs created in the tradeables sector for the past 10 years. […]

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Economic Debate - How To Tackle Tax

August 6th, 2009

The media made much of the package of Govt assistance for young unemployed people announced at the National’s annual conference. But when it came to Bill English, they tended to be more interested in what taxpayers were doing for him than in what he was doing for taxpayers. Pity. His speech fleshed out the gist […]

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Bid To Lift Economic Performance In Pacific

August 6th, 2009

Aust and NZ are determined to achieve better co-ordination in the delivery of assistance to the Pacific. This is because, as Foreign Murray McCully contended in a speech ahead of this week’s Pacific Island Forum, regional organisations are making too little progress. He noted while the regional institutions rake in hundreds of millions of […]

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Key Govt Playing A Long-Term Strategic Game

August 6th, 2009

John Key has shown a dazzling talent as a political tactician. This, to some commentators, explains why he commands 51% support as preferred PM in the latest Colmar-Brunton poll, despite the country being in the longest and deepest recession since the 1930s. Key has been admired variously as a risk-taker, a perpetual optimist, and even […]

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Economic Debate - How To Attract Investment?

July 30th, 2009

As the latest merchandise trade deficit reminds us, our balance of payments is in dire shape and we must desperately crank up our export production. Something much more effective than business grants to stimulate exports is needed - Economic Development Minister Gerry Brownlee, we hear, has been looking into the efficacy of these and finds […]

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Paula Bennett Takes No Prisoners

July 30th, 2009

As a politician Social Development Minister Paula Bennett takes no prisoners, even when she is at risk of being stranded in no-man’s land. This week she brought her guns to bear on a couple of beneficiaries who dared to question the Govt over cutting training allowances. Did she go too far in releasing details of […]

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Recession In Death Throes, But For How Long?

July 30th, 2009

A key share market index has topped the 3000-mark the first time since October 2008, agricultural and horticulture exports are “skating through” the recession, net migration is rising fast and could reach 30,000 over the next year, the country’s trade balance is improving. So is the recession in its death throes? It’s too soon to […]

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Common Border With Aust Closer

July 25th, 2009

John Key is promising “a firm announcement” on the plan for a common border between Aust and NZ when he meets Aust’s PM Kevin Rudd in August. Such a development will be the most significant step in the trans-Tasman relationship for more than a decade, perhaps since CER was signed. Key who earlier ordered a […]

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Economic Debate - How To Cut Government Spending

July 23rd, 2009

State service bosses tend to shy from speaking publicly and forthrightly about their budgets and departmental workloads, observing the convention whereby Govts make policy and civil servants implement it. Rob Muldoon wanted them seen but not heard; under Helen Clark they feared what became known as the great clunking fist from the ninth floor. Bill […]

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Electricity Review Close To Cabinet Scrutiny

July 23rd, 2009

The electricity sector, a crucial element in NZ’s economy, faces a shake-up as Gerry Brownlee’s Ministerial review reaches Cabinet, probably on August 2. The Energy Minister initiated the review in April because of concerns about security of supply, the cost of power, and duplication of electricity sector governance. The Wolak report for the Commerce Commission […]

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Hide Scores A Goal With His Productivity Taskforce

July 23rd, 2009

Rodney Hide scored an important goal this week, naming Don Brash to head a taskforce advising the Govt on how it can close the income gap with Aust by 2025. Establishing this advisory group was an essential element of ACT’s coalition agreement with National. Critics say it’s a mistake to select Brash as its head, […]

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Peters On The Comeback Trail?

July 16th, 2009

Winston Peters fired the first shot on what some commentators believe will be a political comeback campaign, in a letter this week emailed to NZ First members. He wrote “before we make a new beginning we want to use the hardest word in the English language - SORRY.” A copy of the letter, dated July […]

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Australia And NZ Stride Towards A Single Economic Market

July 16th, 2009

Giant strides towards the goal of a single economic market may be taken by NZ and Aust in the next few weeks. In prospect are a pact on the portability of retirement savings, a joint investment protocol; and moves towards a common border. In his talks with Treasurer Wayne Swan in Brisbane this week Finance […]

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It’s Official: NZ Economic Recovery On The Way

July 16th, 2009

The first signs of recovery have emerged. NZ’s economic (though not climatic) winter is ending. Reserve Bank Governor Alan Bollard believes we have avoided a repeat of the Great Depression. Importantly, he thinks NZ is likely to start recovering ahead of the pack. Westpac chief economist Brendon O’Donovan reinforces the Bollard message, saying if it […]

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Economic Debate - Can We Stem Unemployment?

June 25th, 2009

The numbers of jobless in the dole queues has climbed to around 1100 a week in the past two months as unemployment surges. But the Job Summit has and will create thousands of jobs, or so the PM insisted when challenged this week about the employment generated by ideas such as the $2bn credit fund […]

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Key Backs Maori Party Initiatives

June 25th, 2009

One of the surprises of John Key’s Govt has been the evolution of the relationship with the Maori Party as a strong and expanding element of the coalition. Traditionally, there has only been a tenuous empathy between National, and Maori voters. It came under the severest strain at the time of Don Brash’s “One-Nation” speech […]

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Economic Debate - How Long Will Interest Rates Stay Down?

June 18th, 2009

Labour’s Charles Chauvel is making a fuss about loan sharks charging interest at “only” 9% per week. When compounded this burgeons to around 2000% a year. He wants a crackdown, saying NZ is about the only country in the world without laws to deal with the usurers, and has prepared a Member’s Bill to regulate […]

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Boy Racers Versus “The Crusher”

June 18th, 2009

The Govt’s crackdown on illegal street racers, announced this week with a fanfare by an impressive line-up in the Beehive (the PM, Transport Minister Steven Joyce and Police Minister Judith “Crusher” Collins) embraces some draconian powers, including those to seize and destroy vehicles involved in the banned sport and imposing demerit points so as to […]

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Shrewd Politics Gets Govt On The Front Foot

June 18th, 2009

The Govt played shrewd politics this week to get back on the front foot, after the hiccups of the Melissa Lee performance in the Mt Albert by-election and the Christine Rankin affair. It produced new laws to crack down on boy racers, thus underlining its determination to take ownership of law and order issues. John […]

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Govt Reckons Queen’s Wharf Deal A Financial Coup

June 18th, 2009

The Govt reckons it scored a financial coup with its $20m contribution to the $40m purchase of Queen’s wharf in Auckland, which will serve as “party central” during the 2011 Rugby World Cup. The wharf is valued at more than $100m but the Govt had some leverage to get it at a bargain price because […]

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Guy Strengthens Wellington’s Voice In The Ministry

June 18th, 2009

Nathan Guy’s elevation to the Ministerial ranks to fill the vacancy left by the departure of Richard Worth, followed by the promotion of Chris Tremain and Jo Goodhew to be the whips, rewards solid performance by those MPs. Guy will be a strong advocate for the Wellington region within the Ministry (Wellington has been under-represented, […]

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Dairy Sector’s Debt Bubble About To Burst?

June 18th, 2009

Labour and Green politicians have been calling for an inquiry into the Big Four banks’ profit and interest margins, arguing the banks have not passed on the full effects of cuts to the OCR. But John Key doubts whether an inquiry could achieve anything. The real concern for the Govt is the stability of the […]

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Dairy Sector’s Debt Bubble About To Burst?

June 18th, 2009

Labour and Green politicians have been calling for an inquiry into the Big Four banks’ profit and interest margins, arguing the banks have not passed on the full effects of cuts to the OCR. But John Key doubts whether an inquiry could achieve anything. The real concern for the Govt is the stability of the […]

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Lessons From The Mt Albert By-Election

June 18th, 2009

The Mt Albert by-election was a heavy defeat for National, and correspondingly a big victory for Labour. The advent of the highly credentialed David Shearer to the Labour Caucus was celebrated as a triumph both for the new MP, and his leader Phil Goff. Some within the Caucus say the huge margin Shearer secured provides […]

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Dairy Sector’s Debt Bubble About To Burst?

June 18th, 2009

Labour and Green politicians have been calling for an inquiry into the Big Four banks’ profit and interest margins, arguing the banks have not passed on the full effects of cuts to the OCR. But John Key doubts whether an inquiry could achieve anything. The real concern for the Govt is the stability of the […]

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Economic Debate - Where To For Water?

June 11th, 2009

The Govt at last is taking steps to better manage NZ’s fresh water, focusing on quality, quantity, allocation and infrastructure (including water storage). We have plenty of the stuff - it’s the key to our competitive advantage in agriculture and renewable energy and is essential to our environment and lifestyle. But in some parts of […]

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KiwiRail A Financial Headache

June 11th, 2009

KiwiRail, bought last year for $690m and now valued at $388m by Treasury, is proving a headache for the Govt. Treasury papers show it would have run out of cash by November 30, with the result Finance Minister Bill English had to approve a cash injection for operational funding. All other funding has subsequently been […]

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Key - Ignore The Twitter, Get On With Governing

June 11th, 2009

John Key has been getting a lot of advice from the twittering classes lately. They say he should sharpen up his political management, he should get an experienced political strategist into his back office, take a deep breath before shooting from the hip, take a firmer grip on his press conferences, and resist the well-baited […]

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Kupe To Boost NZ’s Oil And Gas Output

June 4th, 2009

NZ’s oil production, with output building up from Maari (32,000 barrels a day) and Tui (19,000 barrels a day), will be boosted again when the $1.1bn Kupe gas/condensate project comes on stream in the next few months. With all its offshore construction completed, Kupe operator Origin Energy reports the onshore production station west of Hawera […]

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Growth Set To Return This Year

June 4th, 2009

The NZ Institute of Economic Research predicts the recession will continue through to September, with renewed growth coming in December. The Institute expects December quarter growth to be led by migration-induced population increase and “considerable stimulus” from monetary and fiscal policy. But the institute estimates a 2% contraction in the March 2009 year, followed […]

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Cabinet Calls For New Thinking To Project “NZ Inc” Abroad

June 4th, 2009

Cabinet has issued a directive the Secretary of the Ministry of Foreign Affairs and Trade should submit a paper to the Cabinet External Relations and Defence Committee in the second half of 2009 on “new arrangements” for the operation of “NZ Inc” onshore and offshore. The Govt is seeking greater co-ordination of the work of […]

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Dunne’s Pointers To Next Steps On Path To Recovery

June 4th, 2009

National Ministers have given few clues on the next phase in re-shaping the direction they want to take the economy. Their broad objectives are plain enough: they aim to lift productivity and sharpen international competitiveness. Over the Govt’s term of office (and there’re only 29 months left) GDP per capita is expected to fall 4%, […]

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Economic Debate - Is Govt Spending The Issue?

May 21st, 2009

Giving business people insights into factors to be considered as the Govt prepared its 2009 Budget, Treasury Secretary John Whitehead said economic downturns don’t last forever. But global economic and financial stresses have become so severe in recent months “we face a tough few years.” He spotlighted two major categories of risk: external (the world […]

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Importance Of Harmonising Climate Change Policies

May 21st, 2009

Climate change Minister Nick Smith is having talks this week with Aust’s Penny Wong on how NZ can harmonise its emissions trading scheme with Aust’s. He says there are four significant advantages in harmonisation. First, success is only possible by countries working together; harmonisation ensures lowest cost possible mitigation measures, and it reduces compliance costs. […]

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Transport Minister Sets Road Funding Parameters

May 21st, 2009

In investing an extra billion dollars in the state highway network over the next 3 years, Transport Minister Steven Joyce says completion of major roading works is one of the initiatives the Govt believes will lift productivity, create and protect jobs, and help goods get to market faster. The National Land Transport Fund will provide […]

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Brownlee Lists Benefits In Promoting Oil Exploration

May 14th, 2009

Energy and Resources Minister Gerry Brownlee, who has extracted an extra $20m for the seismic data acquisition programme run by Crown Minerals over the next 3 years, is also reviewing the minerals regime. He wants to make sure the structure of exploration permits is attractive to potential explorers. Brownlee backed up his argument for more […]

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MSD Restructuring Saves Millions

May 14th, 2009

A restructuring at the Social Development Ministry will create 200 redundancies out of its 9500 staff. The Govt sees the restructuring as moving more resources out of the back office on to the frontline. It could save “many millions” of dollars and CEO Peter Hughes contends the restructuring is needed to absorb cost increases. It […]

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Joyce Puts Kybosh On Road Network Access Fee

May 7th, 2009

Transport Minister Steven Joyce has put the kybosh on the recommendation for a road network access fee to replace the current vehicle licence fee, calling it untenable and an unfair imposition on those who didn’t drive much. The Road User Charges Review Group noted the licence fee had increased by $1 since 1992, and wanted […]

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More Than Just A Seat At Stake In Mt Albert

May 7th, 2009

There’s more to the Mt Albert by-election than meets the public eye. The June 13 contest is generating a lot more political interest and activity than could be expected from a safe Labour seat. This is because it’s going to deliver verdicts on several fronts. Is the Govt really as popular as the opinion polls […]

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Investment Stagnates - ETS Uncertainty Slows Development

May 7th, 2009

The Business Council for Sustainable Development has warned the Select Committee reviewing emissions trading delay in finalising the ETS is already hampering hundreds of millions of dollars in investment in forestry, clean energy and biotechnology which would come from having a fixed carbon price. There’s too much uncertainty around carbon trading, evidenced by the deluge […]

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NZ’s Need To Re-launch Itself - And Only 2 Years To Do It

April 30th, 2009

Independent think tank the NZ Institute, has warned the Govt if it does not change its policies, the Crown accounts will deteriorate rapidly, and remain in bad shape even when the economy starts recovering. It believes the country has a brief “window of opportunity” to re-launch itself in the two years of worldwide disruption, caused […]

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Ministers Crank Up Their Departmental Machines

April 30th, 2009

The swine flu labelled in some reports as a “killer virus” may exert another contractionary squeeze on the economy. Yet despite the efforts of a few news media outlets to beat up the threat, the response of health authorities in NZ to contain the potential risk was wide-ranging and effective. The pandemic planning undertaken by […]

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Can Govt Get Treaty Settlements Done By 2014?

April 23rd, 2009

In setting the ambitious target of completing Treaty settlements by 2014, the Govt believes all NZers will stand to gain from a faster completion of the process. John Key says the Govt wants to be more flexible about the way Maori and the Crown work together, and is seeking a more collaborative and open approach. […]

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Budget To Tackle Blow-Out In Crown Accounts

April 23rd, 2009

Finance Minister Bill English says the Govt came into office with a plan to lift NZ’s economic performance after a decade of under-performance and missed opportunities. The deepening global recession has reinforced the need to implement the plan with even more urgency. The Govt’s books are in worse shape than Treasury predicted in the December […]

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Mapp Seeks Bigger Bang For Defence Buck

April 23rd, 2009

In taking a fresh look at how NZ manages its defence force the Govt has to again confront the problem of how to do more with less. Defence Minister Wayne Mapp says Defence capabilities have been run down and key elements (the Hercules and Orions as well as the two frigates) reach their use-by date […]

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Coalition Government Enters Critical Phase

April 23rd, 2009

John Key’s coalition is entering a critical phase. This is when the rubber hits the road. The political outcome is hard to foresee. The Govt faces major tests of its political skills in framing its first budget against the backdrop of a concerted economic recession across the developed world, and in guiding the Auckland super-city […]

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Can Govt Get Treaty Settlements Done By 2014?

April 23rd, 2009

In setting the ambitious target of completing Treaty settlements by 2014, the Govt believes all NZers will stand to gain from a faster completion of the process. John Key says the Govt wants to be more flexible about the way Maori and the Crown work together, and is seeking a more collaborative and open approach. […]

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Coalition Government Enters Critical Phase

April 23rd, 2009

John Key’s coalition is entering a critical phase. This is when the rubber hits the road. The political outcome is hard to foresee. The Govt faces major tests of its political skills in framing its first budget against the backdrop of a concerted economic recession across the developed world, and in guiding the Auckland super-city […]

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NZ Scores Brownie Points In Washington

April 2nd, 2009

NZ might have scored some brownie points with the Obama administration in advance of Foreign Minister Murray McCully’s talks with US Secretary of State Hillary Clinton next Tuesday. McCully has announced NZ is withdrawing its candidacy for the UN Human Rights Council following the Obama administration’s decision to seek a seat on the Council. The […]

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Govt Inherits Dodgy Pay Deals

April 2nd, 2009

Finance Minister Bill English believes new Ministers and departmental CEOs “have done really well” in the line-by-line spending review he called for before Xmas. The process has now ended and the work is being incorporated in new forecasts for the budget. But English reckons the hard work now looming for departmental bosses is to nut […]

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Power Price Rises: Is There A Way To Switch Them Off?

April 2nd, 2009

Just as reports suggest power companies are planning new increases in energy charges, Energy Minister Gerry Brownlee says a Ministerial review of the electricity sector which will begin work immediately may throw up some short-term improvements and, if so, they will be acted on immediately. He says the Govt has concerns about security of supply, […]

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Brownlee Looks For Export Improvement

March 26th, 2009

When it was in Opposition National was critical of the previous Govt’s failure to lift NZ’s export performance (export volumes have barely increased over the last 10 to 15 years). It promised to look hard at the $300m a year channelled into NZ Trade & Enterprise to see whether export promotion is achieving its aims. […]

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Govt’s Popularity Carries Risk

March 26th, 2009

Riding a wave of unprecedented popularity the Govt is succeeding in maintaining a level of confidence the country can navigate the current downturn safely and without too many bruises. This is the upside of the popularity. But there are risks which grow higher the more John Key and his team are regarded as political super-heroes. […]

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NZ Gets Back On The Obama Administration’s Radar

March 26th, 2009

Murray McCully, already acquiring a formidable reputation as a skilled operator in the foreign affair portfolio (he has succeeded with his recent visits to Samoa and the Cook Islands in rebuilding the close ties with those small but influential South Pacific states), has the task of getting NZ firmly on to the radar of the […]

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Crown Entities Ordered To Measure Up

March 19th, 2009

State Services Minister Tony Ryall called in the chairs of Crown entities this week to give them the Govt’s now standard message it expects higher performance from them with fewer resources. The meeting will be followed by another next month when SOE Minister Simon Power and Finance Minister Bill English are to tell the chairpersons […]

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State Highway Funding Up 50%

March 19th, 2009

In the programme Transport Minister Steven Joyce laid out this week, he was spelling out the size of the funding pipeline for land transport over the next 10 years, set at $6.6bn by Labour, but to be $10.7bn under National. This could be added to through public-private partnerships or tolling. Joyce says under National state […]

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Joyce Proving Himself A Cabinet Heavyweight

March 19th, 2009

Steven Joyce is proving one of John Key’s Cabinet heavyweights, though he went into Parliament and into Cabinet without any previous political experience. He’s navigating the often turbulent passages of managing a major portfolio smoothly, quickly winning the confidence of officials, and exerting an influence far beyond his ranking at 14 in Cabinet would suggest. […]

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Big Cut In Kyoto Liability On The Cards

March 12th, 2009

A looming update on NZ’s net greenhouse gas emissions may show a very big cut in NZ’s Kyoto liability. Senior Govt sources say the revised figures stem from recession-related lower industrial output, a drop in livestock numbers and improved measures of forestry carbon sinks. Last year the effect of petrol price rises on consumption shrank […]

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Balance Of Payments Deficit Exposes NZ’s Vulnerability

March 12th, 2009

“Port Hit by Import Slump” should be a headline to please Finance Minister Bill English. It should signal a rapid improvement in NZ’s balance of payments, currently showing a deficit of 9% of GDP. But English is worried the deficit is not falling fast enough to remove NZ from the watch lists of international credit […]

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Key’s Pragmatism Leaves Opponents Struggling For Traction

March 12th, 2009

John Key has started delivering on ideas out of the Jobs Summit. This week Cabinet approved the nine-day fortnight concept in return for a pledge employers will not make workers in the scheme redundant. The Govt will pay employers $12.50 an hour per worker for up to five hours a fortnight if they negotiate a […]

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Hide Looks For Rates Gains

March 5th, 2009

Rodney Hide has been telling people he’s the Minister for Ratepayers rather than the Minister of Local Govt. He wants to keep rates down, for Councils to focus on necessities, not luxuries, and get the consent of ratepayers before increasing rates faster than inflation. He is also calling on Councils to make their processes “less […]

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Economic Debate - Tax… To Cut Or Not?

March 5th, 2009

The fate of tax cuts promised by National will be a political decision. Even if economic considerations alone determined the outcome, however, there should be no stopping those scheduled from 1 April. They will be stimulatory, helping to lift people’s purchasing power; ditching them would adversely undermine confidence which needs uplifting. But tax cuts timetabled […]

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Plugging Holes In Defence Capabilities

March 5th, 2009

Defence Minister Wayne Mapp is expected to finalise terms of reference for the Defence White Paper when he meets military chiefs, with his Associate Minister Heather Roy, this week. Mapp has inherited a series of procurement decisions, such as the Navy’s multi-purpose ship Canterbury and the NH90 helicopter contract, which lack “proper definition” and reflect […]

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Economic Debate - Do We Need The Cullen Fund?

February 26th, 2009

The PM is sandwiched on Cullen Fund questions between ACT (which has Green support in backing calls to suspend payments into the fund) and United Future’s Peter Dunne (urging National not to tamper and warning against making state pensions a political football). John Key is keeping his powder dry: he hasn’t ruled out suspending or […]

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Infrastructure Seen As New Economic Cure All

February 26th, 2009

The Govt in setting up an infrastructure unit under Treasury’s umbrella has put a Treasury Deputy Secretary Mike James in as interim head, and is planning to establish an Infrastructure Advisory Board whose members will be chosen for their financial, engineering and project management skills. Some authorities believe the new unit should act as a […]

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Searching For Options To Plug The Deficit Drain

February 26th, 2009

With the recession slicing billions off Govt revenue, the Govt faces an operating deficit of $6.2bn (an $8.4bn deterioration from before the election). Besides tax revenue falling, many Crown agencies are seeing their revenue dropping off. Though the Crown’s debt level is currently quite low (2.3% of GDP), on current assumptions the Govt will have […]

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Economic Debate - To Bail Or Not To Bail?

February 19th, 2009

Govts can do whatever they like to help troubled companies at the best of times, let alone in a deepening recession when the political pressure goes on, from leaving all firms to their fate in an unfettered market to nationalising the lot. What they should do lies somewhere between, the closer to the do-nothing end […]

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Resisting Pressure To Lift NZ’s Commitment To Afghanistan

February 19th, 2009

After talks with his counterparts in Canberra and London, Defence Minister Dr Wayne Mapp is heading to Krakow in Poland for a meeting of the member countries in the Nato-led International Stabilisation Force in Afghanistan. Like other countries NZ will almost certainly be coming under heavy pressure from the Obama administration to step up its […]

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Auckland Governance Could Hold Economic Key

February 19th, 2009

The Govt is looking to the Royal Commission on Auckland governance, due to report next month, for some proposals which will streamline the system under which NZ’s largest metropolitan region has to labour at present. Some experts think reform of Auckland’s local Govt structure could be the step which more than any other could unlock […]

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Economic Debate - To Spend Or Prune?

February 12th, 2009

It sounds good: $483.7m of publicly funded infrastructure projects (housing transport and education) are being fast-tracked to boost the Govt’s economic stimulus programme. How much more such capital investment is needed is arguable, but if money is the lifeblood of the economy, and farming the backbone, then infrastructure is the alimentary canal and plenty of […]

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Starting The Huge Task Of Filling The Infrastructure Gap

February 12th, 2009

In fast-tracking $500m of projects spanning the housing, transport, and education sectors, the Govt says it will create work for businesses in the regions, and will help keep suppliers and sub-contractors afloat. More than $100m worth of projects are to start before June 30. Education is to be allocated $216m for new schools, maintenance and […]

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Govt Finances A Balancing Act On A High Wire

February 12th, 2009

Now the hard yards begin. The Govt has to frame a budget under the harsh restraints of falling revenue, a deepening global recession, increasing job losses and shrinking corporate profits. NZ is on negative credit watch. The health of the banking sector is under daily scrutiny. The pillar of NZ’s export sector, the dairy industry, […]

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New Urge For FTA Between Korea And NZ

February 5th, 2009

The deepening recession may have sharpened protectionism in Europe (Trade Minister Tim Groser has been working the traps in Davos and Brussels over the EU’s plan to bring back farm subsidies), but it may be having the opposite effect in some parts of Asia. Korea in particular wants to accelerate lowering trade barriers.
In a […]

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Govt Sets Sights On Defence Review

February 5th, 2009

The Govt is preparing to write a major review of NZ’s defence policy in the form of a new white paper. Ministers may appoint a small team of experts to pull together the paper with the Ministry of Defence, NZ Defence Force, MFAT, Treasury and border control agencies. In Opposition, National believed the Govt had […]

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Economic Debate - How Much Intervention Is Too Much?

February 5th, 2009

So far so good, for those who fear a slide back towards Muldoonism. The PM has done no more than tell us he is keeping in touch with the banking sector in times of trouble. His Govt needs good information about (as he explains) the lubricant to keep the economy going, and face-to-face chats will […]

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Petroleum Production Could Be A (Partial) Saviour For NZ

January 29th, 2009

Some of the pain of the NZ’s economic downturn is being eased by expanding production in the petroleum sector. The $500m Maari oil project offshore in Taranaki is due to come on stream in the next few weeks, and the $1.1bn Kupe gas/condensate development is due to be commissioned in the third quarter of 2009. […]

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New Unit To Add Grunt To Infrastructure Plans

January 29th, 2009

Cabinet is expected to finalise details of a new advisory unit, probably inside Treasury, with a mix of public and commercial experience to give grunt to Infrastructure Minister Bill English and associate Steven Joyce. John Key wants urgent action on new roading projects. Water storage is also high on the Govt’s infrastructure agenda. Ministers have […]

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Economic Debate - Minimum Wage: Up Or Static?

January 29th, 2009

The prospect of a wage freeze for MPs and higher-paid public servants politicians was welcomed as a splendid exemplar in many quarters. But there is much hand-wringing from the Left at the prospect of the minimum wage being frozen - the Green Party’s Sue Bradford wails it’s the last thing our economy needs, (although the […]

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Economic Debate - Half-Full or Half-Empty?

January 22nd, 2009

Highlighting the good economic news to be uncovered if we dig deep enough seemed like a good idea for this first issue of the new year, until TVNZ reported Prime Minister John Key’s wish an end be put to doom-and-gloom talk about the economy. Now it will seem we are obsequiously doing his bidding. But […]

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Treasury’s Message Mis-Read?

December 11th, 2008

Treasury has been caned by some commentators for what they see as its increasingly out-dated prescription for dealing with economic ill-health. There is even some suggestion Finance Minister Bill English in rejecting Treasury’s ideas on a capital gain tax, increasing GST and longer term a cut in national super rejected the briefing. But in fact […]

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Value For Money Missing In Many Govt Programmes

December 11th, 2008

One of the most startling statements in briefings to Ministers came in Treasury’s revelation the public sector “is struggling to provide assurances on performance and value for money.” For several years private sector lobby groups have questioned whether the Govt was getting value for money in many new spending programmes. The confirmation from the Govt’s […]

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Economic Debate - Growth Drivers Too Hot To Handle?

December 11th, 2008

We must hark back to the 1980s Lange Govt to find tax reforms seriously aimed at promoting economic efficiency and growth by encouraging businesses and households to make decisions on their economic merits rather than for tax purposes. A much improved economic framework resulted from trade liberalisation, the elimination of agricultural subsidies, those tax measures […]

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Australia-NZ Relations Drifting Further Apart

November 27th, 2008

Senior Ministers are becoming increasingly concerned at the drift between Canberra and Wellington over major policy as the Rudd Govt charts its own course without bothering to consult. This has already been most evident in coordination over the response to the global economic crisis.
At the weekend the Aust press reported how Rudd, in a […]

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Economic Debate - What Are The Real Economic Problems?

November 27th, 2008

John Walley, chief of the Manufacturers and Exporters Assn, has cause to wail about short-term spending and bank bailout plans dominating the election campaign, and how this has shifted attention from the local problems underpinning our economy. Decisions on where to locate or whether to start an economic activity still rely on long-term prospects as […]

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Currency Worries As Economy Re-Balances

November 27th, 2008

The precipitous plunge in the NZ dollar, as carry trades desert the Anzac currencies, has tilted the economy back in favour of the export sector. The Kiwi is down by a third against the peak of US82c, and 40% against the yen. But exporters are concerned the long-awaited re-balancing of the currency may not bring […]

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Key Sets Priorities For Incoming Ministers

November 13th, 2008

One of the first tasks John Key is setting his new Ministers is a line-by-line review of Govt spending. This will be entrusted to a razor gang whose aim will to get a bigger bang for the buck, and eliminate wasteful programmes. The Govt will also be seeking to lift the performance of state enterprises […]

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Economic Debate - What To Do About The Economy?

November 13th, 2008

There wouldn’t be much room for Sir Roger Douglas’ ideas in the new Cabinet, if it remains committed to a centrist path, even if the ACT MP and architect of Rogernomics hadn’t been ruled out of considerations before the election. Special pleadings from business lobbies were squashed while he was introducing his reforms in the […]

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New Technique From Key - Portfolios To Be Clustered

November 13th, 2008

John Key will establish a Ministry, with teams of Ministers clustered in related portfolios. Example: Bill English as Finance Minister will also be Minister for Infrastructure, round which will be clustered Telecommunications and Transport, (likely to go to newcomer and list MP Steven Joyce and Northcote’s Jonathan Coleman with David Bennett as an Associate). Round […]

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Campaign Winners And Losers

November 6th, 2008

Winston Peters: Harder to kill than Rasputin, but his number looks up. Often truculently silly (eg the helicopter business). So no win, or No, Win.
The Maori Party: Looks like hanging onto its four seats but may not add any more. They’ve done OK, but not as well as they were expected to.
The Greens: […]

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What’s The Post Election Role For Treaty of Waitangi?

November 6th, 2008

The Maori Party which initially had high hopes of making a clean sweep of the seven Maori electorates, is now finding the contest much tougher, as Labour backed by trade union activists pushes back against inroads into a traditional base. Polling in the electorates (admittedly with relatively small samples) has shown a swing back to […]

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Economic Debate - Where To After The Election?

November 6th, 2008

The Clark Govt has made our economy less vulnerable to the global slowdown by improving its finances over the past nine years (at the expense of tax cuts only just introduced). Tables in a report from Britain’s Institute of Fiscal Studies show NZ slipped into recession with much less public-sector debt than when the Nats […]

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Cabinet Blends Experience And Fresh Faces

October 23rd, 2008

John Key has concentrated his top Ministers into the economic portfolios (himself with Tourism, Bill English, Finance and Infrastructure, Gerry Brownlee, Economic Development, Energy & Resources, Simon Power, Commerce & State-Owned Enterprises) as part of the drive for growth. “This cluster of Ministers and related portfolios demonstrate that getting the economy going will be front […]

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NZ Sidelined In New Nuclear Disarmament Group

October 23rd, 2008

For more than 20 years NZ’s Labour Party has considered itself a leading authority on nuclear disarmament and its anti nuclear policies have earned the enmity of former ANZUS Treaty partners Aust and the US. But somehow NZ is missing from the ranks of Aust PM Kevin Rudd’s new international anti-nuclear weapons commission which met […]

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Economic Debate - Is NZ’s High Inflation Self Inflicted?

October 23rd, 2008

Helen Clark and John Key were in agreement, when September-quarter CPI figures showed annual inflation had risen 5.1%. It was the biggest rise in 18 years, lifting inflation significantly above the official 1-3% target range. It hadn’t been above 5% since reaching 7.6% in 1990 after GST was hoisted from 10% to 12.5%. But neither […]

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Economic Debate - Who Gets A Fair Guarantee?

October 16th, 2008

Many Americans are dismayed by the rewriting of the rules of capitalism and the massive US govt bailout of the banks; others see state intervention as preferable to the collapse of the financial system. But NZ’s financial system - we’ve persistently been assured by Finance Minister Cullen and RBNZ bosses - is fundamentally sound. Each […]

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Delays To Maari Oil Production

October 16th, 2008

First production from the Maari oilfield, 50km off the Taranaki coast, which was scheduled to begin this month, may be delayed until closer to the end of the year. Bad weather has delayed batch-drilling the first 3 production wells. Eventually there will be 5 oil-producing wells and 3 water injection wells. The wellhead platform and […]

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Economic Debate - What About Growth?

October 9th, 2008

Bugger. As the prospective beneficiaries of buckets of election bribes, we’ve been done no favours by the opening of the Govt’s books. The Treasury’s economic and fiscal projections brace us for negligible growth in the year to March 2009 (before the economy picks up to around 3% GDP growth in 2010), unemployment rising above 5%, […]

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New Assessment System May Tax Incoming Building Minister

October 9th, 2008

An effort by local authority building officials through their national body, the Building Officials Institute of NZ (BOINZ), to set up their own assessment service for products they will need to approve in the building consent and compliance process is raising eyebrows. Officials have the legal power to accept or reject building products intended for […]

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Govt Spending To Be Reviewed “Rigorously”

October 9th, 2008

John Key says the severity of the international downturn has exposed the economy’s weaknesses more quickly than anyone expected. The choices facing NZ have become “more stark.” NZ’s economic recovery must be built on improved productivity and a better environment for investment in jobs and growth. Key argues the decade of deficits outlined in the […]

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Maori Party Ponders Its Future Under MMP

October 2nd, 2008

The Maori Party’s post-election position is becoming an issue of intense speculation, because it’s tipped to add two more seats to the four it holds. It could even take all seven Maori seats, making it potentially the third largest party in Parliament and possibly holding the balance of power. Exasperating uncertainty in the comments of […]

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Tough Message Handed To Fijian Leaders

October 2nd, 2008

Fiji has been handed its toughest message yet on the need to hurry-along elections and restore genuine democratic and constitutional Govt. Meanwhile, there are signs the military regime, having received a series of tough messages from international leaders, may be having second thoughts over its hard-line stance. Trade Minister Phil Goff, says the Commonwealth Ministerial […]

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Economic Debate - To Bail Or Not To Bail

October 2nd, 2008

President Bush - trying to woo legislators who scuttled a $US700bn Wall Street bailout - warned the threat to the US economy will worsen each day which passes without a rescue package. He summed up the crisis: “Our country is not facing a choice between Govt action and the smooth functioning of the free market. […]

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US Trade Deal Prospect Raises Cheers

September 25th, 2008

The US decision to start free trade negotiations with NZ, Singapore, Chile and Brunei gave the Govt a big boost this week and the business sector cheered the news. Labour hopes it means more votes as well as a potential $1bn for the economy. Helen Clark says a deal with the four countries, known as […]

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Labour Catches Key With Shares Shocker

September 25th, 2008

National Party leader John Key didn’t have to wait long for the campaign to take a nasty turn. Labour dredged up records proving his family trust once held 100,000 Tranz Rail shares, not the 30,000 he acknowledged earlier this year when he was accused of conflict of interest because he had been asking Parliamentary questions […]

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Wounded Peters Could Be Dangerous

September 25th, 2008

Winston Peters has been censured by Parliament and National says it won’t have anything to do with him after the election, but it’s difficult to find an MP from any party prepared to say the NZ First leader won’t be back. Peters is at his best, and most determined, when the odds are stacked against […]

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Report On Warship Hammers Defence Chiefs

September 18th, 2008

Is HMNZS Canterbury another naval lemon, like the late HMNZS Charles Upham - or can it be suitably modified to fill its proper role? In announcing a $20m “get well” programme, Defence Minister Phil Goff thinks the answer is yes.
Few doubt the report prepared by British naval authority John Cole and his team represents […]

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Energy Firms Applaud Use Of “Call-In”

September 18th, 2008

For all the criticism of the Resource Management Act, few are griping about the powers of the Govt to call in major contracts in the national interest. Contact Energy this week gained resource consent for its 220MW Te Mihi geothermal power station near Taupo after the approvals process was fast-tracked. A second project, the 540MW […]

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Economic Debate - Judge Character Or History?

September 18th, 2008

Financial shockwaves girdled the globe, after Lehman Brothers (the US’s biggest bankruptcy) and Merrill Lynch (whose collapse was averted by its sale to Bank of America) became victims of the 14-month-old credit crisis and AIG scrambled for loans to stay afloat. NZ was not spared: the NZX 50 suffered its biggest one-day drop in six […]

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Nats Blast Defence Deficiencies

September 11th, 2008

National MP Murray McCully has again lambasted several new Defence projects in the wake of last week’s NZ Defence Force annual report which he says reveals “gaping holes” in defence capability. The MRV Canterbury faces huge questions about equipment and capability. It is unable to perform operations. The Navy’s six new patrol boats, (four in-shore […]

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Dairy Payments Outlook Bleak

September 11th, 2008

The outlook for payments to Fonterra’s farmers is to be something of a balancing act, with global production expected to increase in an environment of waning economic growth. Against this, the NZ dollar’s decline will soften the impact. NZ’s commodity export price index had the biggest decline in seven years in August and milk powder […]

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Economic Debate - Policy Or Bust

September 11th, 2008

Instead of delighting in releasing National policies, Labour would facilitate a much-needed election-year economic debate by posting its own policies. Kiwiblog’s David Farrar alerted readers a month ago to the National Party web-site’s inclusion of a section where policies are listed, whereas Labour’s website didn’t list one 2008 policy plank. It still doesn’t. Visitors to […]

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Economic Debate - Does Tax Force Migration?

September 4th, 2008

National leader John Key expressed concerns about migration outflows, linking Kiwi flight with the IRD bite, when launching his party’s first election campaign billboard (”wave goodbye to higher taxes not your loved ones”). He contends over-taxation has had a huge influence in driving Kiwis abroad. Actually, it’s somewhat more complicated: outflow data show a fairly […]

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All Sectors Target The Govt’s ETS Bill

September 4th, 2008

The Govt’s Emissions Trading Scheme, arguably the biggest economic reform since those of the 1980s, was under heavy crossfire this week, from business, from the Federation of Maori Authorities, from Opposition parties in Parliament, and even one of its support parties United Future. UF leader Peter Dunne called for the Bill to be deferred for […]

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Key’s Decision On Peters A Bit Of Cold Steel

September 4th, 2008

John Key made probably the biggest call of his term as Leader of the Opposition, when he ruled Winston Peters out of any Govt he might lead. National says the response was extraordinary. It reflects deep disenchantment with a political process where minority parties are holding the country to ransom. Many voters now believe NZ’s […]

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Major FTA Talks Make Progress

August 28th, 2008

Trade Minister Phil Goff hopes an ASEAN-Aust-NZ Free Trade Agreement may be signed by the end of the year. He is in Singapore this week for the annual ASEAN-CER Ministers meeting, which includes two days of negotiations towards the FTA. Officials have made good progress over the past 12 months and have resolved between 90-95% […]

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It’s Still The Economy For Voters

August 28th, 2008

The tough times for NZ households hit home this week when latest official figures showed food prices had risen 7.6% over the year, with some staples rising faster: bread up 19.6%, cheddar cheese up nearly 60%, butter up 89.4%, and fresh milk up 10.2%. Households spend $38 out of every $100 of the food budget […]

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Economic Debate - For Whom The Road Tolls

August 28th, 2008

Maurice Williamson told the recent National Party conference about the need to build more roads. But at what cost? He told TV One’s Agenda about $300-400m a year, to bring the road network up to scratch. Some funding will come from increased public borrowing and there’s a role for public-private partnerships. Tolls will be considered […]

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Economic Debate - Is Trans Tasman Economic Unity Possible?

August 21st, 2008

In the 25 years since the CER signing, two-way trans-Tasman trade has grown at more than 8% a year on average (to be worth $A21.5bn last year) and NZ exports to Aust have grown at 7.7% a year. But how do the two countries forge even closer economic and investment ties? Addressing trans-Tasman CEOs in […]

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Cabinet To Tick New Rail Plans

August 21st, 2008

Cabinet is next week expected to consider and approve a structure for its newly acquired Kiwi Rail business, as well as a significant new investment of around $80m in rolling stock, locomotives and infrastructure. The favoured structure is an over-arching entity (NZ Railway Corporation?), with two operating divisions, one of which will be Kiwi Rail, […]

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High Hopes For Latest Treaty Settlement

August 21st, 2008

The latest Treaty settlement signed this week by Wellington Tenths Trust chairman Dr Ngatata Love ended a 21-year battle over the Port Nicholson Block claims. In 1839 the iwi signed the Port Nicholson Block deed of purchase, which was meant to include the protection of 10% of the block, which stretches from Wellington’s south coast […]

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Economic Debate - Is Public Debt Bad?

August 14th, 2008

Finance Minister Michael Cullen and National’s Bill English welcomed Standard & Poor’s reaffirmation of NZ AA+/A-1+ foreign-currency and AAA/Stable/A-1 local-currency sovereign credit ratings. Both found endorsements of their policies in the ratings review. Cullen said it was vital our Govts maintain investors’ confidence in NZ as a place to invest in and to do business […]

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Parker Talks Up Future For Gas

August 14th, 2008

Despite the Clark Govt’s 10-year restriction on new fossil fuel base-load thermal generation above 10MW, Energy Minister David Parker says it’s not “doom and gloom” for the petroleum sector. Fossil fuels, especially gas, he insists, will have a critical role for some time to come. Contact Energy is intending to build a 200MW peaking plant […]

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NZ Economy At A “Critical Crossroads”

August 14th, 2008

Finance Minister Michael Cullen says NZ is at a “critical crossroads.” He’s warning NZers must accept the current economic slowdown is not a run-of-the-mill low point in the economic cycle. “While I have full confidence NZ will start growing again later this year, no-one should expect that once growth returns the world will keep ticking […]

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NZ’s Credit Rating Unchanged

August 7th, 2008

Rating agency Standard & Poor’s has affirmed its AA+ foreign currency credit rating on NZ. The agency says the rating reflects NZ’s strong fiscal flexibility, political stability and flexible and resilient economy. It adds NZ’s current account deficits and high external debt leave the economy vulnerable to external shocks. “While NZ’s high net external indebtedness […]

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Annette King Sets Out Transport Goals

August 7th, 2008

Launching the NZ Transport Strategy and Govt Policy Statement on Land Transport Funding at the Beehive, Transport Minister Annette King revealed Govt investment in land transport ($3.1bn this year) will be stepped up substantially. The NZ Transport Agency will decide on construction starts soon for the Newmarket Viaduct ($190m), Christchurch Southern Motorway ($140m) and Victoria […]

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Economic Debate - Borrow Or Not?

August 7th, 2008

Bill English brandished a raft of quotes from Helen Clark’s time in opposition, after she denounced National’s plans to boost infrastructure investment with “a prudent programme” of debt management. In 1994 (when the public debt was above 50% of GDP) she criticised the Bolger Govt for “putting an undue emphasis on debt repayment at the […]

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